BlueCollarIT

since I last posted.  chalk it up to laziness.  I actually put some posts on the official tennis blog.  I didn't see any real response there.  right now is really the slow time for tennis - the last 3 weeks of December.  You could call it the off season.  Well Roger will have come up with some good tennis at Australia to tie Pete at 14 grand slam crowns.  he could do it but he could easily not.  the crowns aren't coming as easily these days.  thats the way tennis and sports are.  it seems easy for the great ones for a while and then the legs seem to weigh a little more than they used to. 

there could be a real shuffle in Australia.  Simon, Murray, or Del Potro could break into the slam arena. Djokovic or Nadal of course could do it again.  Lets see what happens in the tuneups before making any real predictions.  I am expecting a big year out of the Bryans.  They will get the doubles crown back this year.  On the womans side it seems like a new champ will begin to assert herself out of the merry go round since Henin retired.

what do you say

the tennis world is indeed a different world than a year ago.  Last year at the us open it seemed like Roger didn't really have to exert himself to win the title.  I don't know if he even lost a set.  This year we find both finalists having lost a set in the semis.  Roger has lost 3 sets total and Andy has lost 5.  Neither seems a sure bet.

Roger may win to get within 1 title of Pete Sampras.   He could just as easily lose.  Murray is not a deer in the headlights.  This may be his first Grand Slam final but he has been expecting this for a while.  He came to this tournament to win not just show.  He bested Nadal, who at number 1, perhaps was a little worn out from Beijing.  He has a good record against Roger.  If Andy pushes into 4 or 5 sets the pressure will be on Roger.  This could be a great match.

I picked Del Potro but Murray took him down.  OK the rest were just the top seeds so it wasn't that tough.  Can I help it if the top seeds play well?  That is why they are seeded first.

Most of the interesting gals are gone from the singles so it looks like a final between serena and jelena.  I will take Serena here because she is tough in the clutch.  One of these days though Jankovic will win a major.

Congrats to the Bryans for winning this one.  Maybe this will put them back on top.

OK, i will go out on a limb and pick Roger to beat Rafa in the final for his only slam win of the year.

After the second round we have a better picture of what to look for in the Quarterfinals.

Q1 - not an easy group but look for Nadal to win this one over a hard charging Blake.

Q2 - I like Del Potro here.  He will knock off Ferrer and then take Murray in the Quarterfinals.

Q3 - The toughest quarter with Roddick, Safin, Tsonga, Cilic all left but I have to go with a blue chip player in Djokovic.

Q4 - The easiest quarter in the draw.  Federer will win it and gain some momentum for the semis.  Winning an olympic gold will ease some of the pressure from this guy who still has a lot of tennis left in him.

With the US Open almost here there are a number of stories to be written and questions to be asked? Nadal is number one now and won't lose it here without a major collapse - not likely.  Roger can't pick real points here since he  won last year he is just defending those points.  It really does't matter to him if he becomes number one again.  Winning slams is really all he really cares about  now.  What better goal now than to win the open.  That would give him 13 and put him nearer the goal of overtaking Sampras who has 14.  Tennis is all about confidence and whether Roger can put it together is anybodys guess.  My thinking is he can lose in an early round because that's where it will be scary for him.  If he makes it to quarters he will probably have the confidence built up to meet Nadal in the final.  Then it will come down to a war of nerves which most people will pick Nadal to win.

What about dark horses? This is always the fun part.  Will someone come out of the pack to make a big run to the finish.  Tsonga did it at the Australian open.  The guy who has been making a big splash recently is Juan Martin Del Potro.  He has been on fire and forgotton how to lose in the last several weeks.  Then theres Andy Murray.  He is up to number six and knocked off his old friend Novak Djokovic in Cincinnatti.  Can Any Roddick make some noise.  He thinks the U.S. Open is his best slam chance since he has home court and he skipped Beijing to be fresh for this.  The problem is he has lost in some early rounds recently to stay a little too fresh.  His confidence is not on top.  James Blake is also a big Apple favorite and played some great tennis at the olympics.

On the women's side you have the usual suspects jockeying for position.  Ivanovic is back on top and Jankovic and the allways dangerous Williams sisters can't be counted out.  For a dark horse Caroline Wozniacki has been showing some great tennis winning 2 tournaments this month at the age of 18.

Who do you pick to win this thing?  What say you?

Jelena Jankovic takes over number one for the women and Rafael Nadal takes over the top spot for the men on Aug 18th.  The ranking is determined by how a player has performed between today and a year ago today.  If a player skips a tournament this year that they won last year then they will miss out on those points.  What it means is that Jankovic has been the most consistent woman on the tour for the last 12 months.  She seems to make it to the final four in most tournaments.  Maria has missed some tournaments and Ivanovic was knocked out early at Wimbledon which discounted her winning the French.  I think you will see this change hands quite a few time in the coming months. 

For the men it has been more stable.  Rafa will hold his position as long as he doesn't get knocked off early in tournaments which is hard to picture.  How balanced will that crown be on his head?  Will Roger make a comeback now that the pressure is off of him?  Will Rafa feel the pressure of being numero uno as much as he felt the challenge of being Numero Dos?  Will he keep the crown as long as Roger did, or will Novak or Murray or Roger come and get it next?  What say you?

Some sportswriter asked Roger about his dropping to number 2 soon.  His answer was "I don't care".

Some writer asked Rafa about his becoming number 1 soon.  His answer was "I don't really think much about it"

Now the writers run off and build a story around these comments.  Are you kidding me?  Just write your stinking story and leave a guy who just lost in peace.  Leave a guy who is playing the best tennis in the world alone to work on keeping it up.  Let them play while you do the writing.  No wonder Serena Williams is blistered for her comments after losing at the Wimbledon final.  I think a player after a tough loss should say, "None of your stinking business" to the dumb sportswriter who asks, "How does it feel to lose?"

Gasquet was playing out of his mind in the first set and won an incredible tiebreak 14 to 12.  Then Rafa blows him away the next two sets.  No discouragement.  No mind games.  No defeatist attitude.  No 'wow the top seeds are all losing' running through his head.  He just plays like the next number one.  Maybe Yogi Berra was right.  The game really is 90% half mental.  Rafa has the head for it.